Here are the top 5 things I expect will result from the health reform package that is most likely to slide through (the Senate Version mostly) both houses and on to the President’s desk:
1. Mediocrity: The rewards and incentives for employers to establish high performing health plans will be diminished by reform and promote mediocrity among many sectors of the employer market. This is not the right response—progressive, strategic-minded groups will be able to set themselves apart in their industries, but the prevailing trend will be a march toward mediocrity.
2. Anger: The lack of meaningful reforms that “bend the cost curve” across the system will generate a real backlash among job creators who favor reform that controls cost—right now, there is an expectation and hope for positive change, but reality will prove very disappointing especially in the long term.
3. Paralysis: Insurance carriers really don’t know what to make of reform-an expanded market via the individual mandates is exciting but the weak penalty for non-compliance and the tighter pricing regulations will strangle profitability. Most companies will overreact on both accounts and miss the opportunity to find new ways to add value to the system—they have too much baggage and infrastructure to respond!
4. Depression: Insurance agents , particularly those who focus exclusively in the under 100 employer market, see this as the end of the line for them. Many have been waiting to ride the last wave into the beach, and this is it, which is really sad…Opportunities will abound, but not for those who prefer the status quo and are either too old, too lazy or too scared to reinvent themselves.
5. Innovation: Confusion breeds opportunity, and new ideas and new ways to add value to the system will spawn from all of the new government controls, taxes, fees and huge new bureaucracies that the regulations provide. It’s not for the lazy or the wary (or the weary!), but it is an exciting time for those who embrace the confusion, uncertainty and the turmoil that will follow.
I, for one, can’t wait to get started!!
Good question-as it stands right now, the Sustinet board is busy formulating recommendations that are due buy the end of the year. Their charge is to develop a framework for a system of universal coverage, and since the federal legislation leaves 24 million uninsured at the end of 10 years (Senate), their will remain a gap that Sustinet will be trying the address. The problem, of course, is funding. CT has a deficit of $500 million + already this year, and the initial projections for Sustinet were ~$1 billion or a a year. There will be additional federal monies for the state to use, which can probably be funneled through Sustinet to use, but we’ll have to see what the ultimate details are to get a clearer idea.
Bill – How will this federal legislation impact our own state healthcare legislation with Sustinet?